The Middle East – A [very] Cautious Evaluation 10.5102/uri.v9i1.1391

Resumo

This paper tries to present a cautious evaluation of the ongoing uprisings against the various authoritarian regimes in the Middle East and North Africa, in countries so different as Tunisia, Egypt and Bahrain, Yemen, Syria or Libya. It is noting the fact that millions of young participants in the uprisings are not organized politically, real secular political parties do not exist or are extremely weak, and therefore warns about the threat from the organized radical Islamist movements as potential winners in these internal conflicts. It also tries to explain why the “Turkish model” of the Islamist AKP government is not the best solution to this revolutionary wave. The paper mentions the importance of the new networking media in the development of the events but not as a sine qua non condition for success, as the anti-democratic Islamists also skillfully use it. Finally, it warns about the threat to the existing peace agreements between Israel and its Arab neighbors and the possibility that the theocratic regime in Iran could be the real winner of the situation.